You need to be ready for the expansion bust-and-boom cycle. In a nutshell, this means you need to have the gold on hand to take advantage of the extremely low prices that will happen in the last weeks leading up to the expansion release. Some players mistakenly think that everything “old” will be worthless going forward, and they will dump their valuable goods at rock-bottom prices, just before the expansion arrives. Also, demand for certain goods will fall off as players focus on future play in Cataclysm and stop paying attention to the here-and-now.
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In the past (WotLK and Burning Crusade), players have generally become obsessed with expansion expectation around the time the open beta starts. As they shift their attention to the new game, there is a general downward trend in the demand and prices for goods. This trend may present some opportunities, but what you are really waiting for are the drastic declines… like those in a stock market crash. When you first see the signs of the decline, you don’t want to immediately start to stock pile. You want to just buy enough to meet your immediate resale demands, about 1-2 weeks’ worth of sales.
What you actually need leading up to the eventual “bust” is cash on hand, so that you will be able to buy up bargains in the last weeks and days before the expansion goes live. Right now, you should cut back on your crafting activities, except for consumables (potions, elixirs, scrolls, buff foods etc.)… the items needed by people who are still questing, instancing, or doing last-minute viewing of current content.
You should also be aggressive about selling off the stock you do have on hand. You don’t want to create or add to a panic by slashing prices, but you should probably spend a little more time than usual trying to get sales and reduce your inventory. Post more auctions than usual, just make sure you don’t over-saturate the market. Check your bank(s) and alts to see if there’s something in there you forgot about! Just try hard to stay on top of things and move more of your stuff than normal.
Once the crash does happen – and it looks like this is going to happen quite late this time around – you need to be patient and wait for truly extreme low prices. There’s no reason to stress over this. It’s not like a stock market where there could be a sudden rebound and you’ve missed your window of opportunity. In this bust-and-boom cycle, when the prices drop they’re pretty much going to stay down until the expansion goes live. If you’ve got the gold on hand, you can afford to wait. After all, you’re in the driver’s seat… you’re the buyer.
So, what should you plan to buy when the prices drop? There’s no shortage of possibilities!
Primarily you want to be looking at pre Wrath of the Lich King items – trade goods that have already proven their long-term value and staying power; and then look at rare-drop items that can’t be replenished easily. Remember, every server is different and your mileage may vary, but here are some items I will be watching:
Enchanting Materials such as:
- Abyss Crystal
- Large Radiant Shard
- Illusion Dust
- Greater Cosmic Essence
Rare Pets such as:
- Whelplings
- Hyacinth Macaw
- Disgusting Oozling
- Razzashi Hatchling
Rare Recipes, Patterns, Formulas etc. such as:
- Recipe: Insane Strength Potion
- Pattern: Stylish Blue Shirt
Crafting Materials of all kinds, such as:
- Mithril Ore
- Thorium Ore
- Wool Cloth
- Felcloth
- Spider’s Silk
- Borean Leather
Quest Items and Rep-Grinding Turn-ins, such as:
- Fel Armament
- Arcane Tomes
This is nothing like a complete list, there will be literally hundreds of items selling cheap and in large quantities in the last days. The key right now (before the bust) is to get ready for action: convert your inventory to gold, and get your head into the right frame of mind for snapping up bargains when the crash takes place.
Next: Video – Cataclysm Bust and Volatility